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🇺🇦 Ukraine's $12.7B Tech Industry | Rise of MilTech

Exploring the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the IT and services exports sector.

🇺🇦 Ukraine IT and Services Exports 🇺🇦 

Last year, Lviv IT Cluster reported on the state of IT exports in 2022. The IT sector was the only export sector that had grown despite the full-scale war. The total export revenue of IT services had grown by 5.85% to a total of $7.3 billion.

Now, new figures have been shared by DOU and data of the National Bank for 2023. While the overall tech industry turnover is expected to rise by 0.45%, IT export revenue is estimated to shrink by nearly 8.5%. Official data for Ukraine’s GDP in 2023 will be published in March 2024 but current estimates put the total economic effect of Ukraine’s tech industry at $12.7 billion.

I asked my friend and Ukrainian correspondent Val Sanin, Director of Sales at YouTeam, to share some thoughts.

Part of the decline can be explained by risk management policies of medium and large IT employers in Ukraine: these companies started actively setting up offices in European countries like Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Estonia, Spain, and Portugal, hiring Ukrainian refugees in those countries as well as local talent, which resulted in lower export incomes for Ukraine and a decline in job openings this side of the border.

The number of open vacancies for tech roles in Ukraine dropped by 34% in 2023 compared to 2022.

It doesn’t only mean fewer jobs for Ukrainian software developers though, as local industry professionals estimate that anywhere from 14-20% of developer talent fled the country as refugees and around 1.5% of local developers joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine - some as volunteers and some got drafted.

Let’s dig into some stats from Lviv IT Cluster’s 2023 research after studying over 7,000 tech specialists and more than 400 companies from all regions of Ukraine.

Talent Market

  • The number of tech specialists has increased by 7% to a total of 307,600 people of which 242,000 live and work in Ukraine

  • Ukraine specialists are highly qualified with nearly 43% having 6+ years of experience in the tech industry and 8% having 15+ years of experience.

  • Freelancing has more than doubled from 4% in 2022 to 10% in 2023

Income

  • A whopping 44% of respondents saw an increase in earnings (14% more than in 2022). Earnings dropped for only 10% of respondents.

  • While income grew, so did expenses. A massive 72.9% of technologists indicated an increase in expenses YoY.

Startup Investment

Outlook & Support

Estimates all signal to continued expansion in 2024 with revenue projections reaching as high as 10.37% YoY growth.

Local leaders are more realistic in their take. “According to our estimates,” says Vitaly Sadler, CEO of Intellias, “the difficult situation on global markets will continue in 2024. After which, we hope, the growth of the world economies will resume, and the number of orders for the services of Ukrainian IT companies will increase.”

How is the industry continuing to respond? TechCrunch’s two-year retro shares a number of programs bolstering Ukraine’s tech scene including support from Google and the European Union.

🇺🇦 The Rise of MilTech 🇺🇦 

While catching up with Val about the Ukrainian economy, we started to chat about innovation as a whole.

Innovation thrives in chaos. Household names like Microsoft, EA, Airbnb, Whatsapp, Uber, Square, Instagram were all founded during recessions. Calendly was built in Kiev in 2014 at the height of the Maidan Revolution.

Our eyes stay on Ukraine as we watch for the next big thing in MilTech (military technology). Who knows, maybe we’ll see new defense and aviation Unicorns from the region.

Here’s what Val had to say.

Due to the ongoing invasion, Ukraine is becoming a hub for military technology. AFU’s experience in combat is reshaping modern warfare, especially through drone technology. The Ukrainian private sector is experiencing a surge of miltech companies. While at least 45 such companies operate publicly, there are hundreds more operating under anonymity and in stealth mode. These companies primarily focus on air, sea, and land drones, as well as AI systems to improve drone accuracy and electronic warfare equipment for defense against enemy drones. Commercialization of the space enables rapid growth of MilTech companies that are already employing thousands of software, and hardware engineers, and deep-tech talent. The Ukrainian government is actively supporting the industry through initiatives like the Brave1 MilTech startup accelerator, which has a $40 million investment fund allocated for 2024.

The shift in the warfare paradigm unraveling now in Ukraine was noticed by ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who has reportedly ventured into the FPV drone industry with his new startup, White Stork, based in Estonia. The headquarters location (Eastern Europe) and the symbolic significance of white storks in Ukraine are considered by the Ukranians to be hints at the venture's mission - aid to their defense effort.